Saturday, October 1, 2011

Reason to buy silver

I’m convinced that silver is a better buy than ever before. Here are detailed reasons why I believe that is the case.This is a much better time to buy than when prices have already climbed and many are buying just because prices are rising. At those times the risk of a sharp sell-off is high. Now the risk of a prolonged price decline is much lower. There is no bullish “fever” where uninformed investors are driven to buy silver because of a sharply rising price. That will happen, but it’s not true now. While silver is still above the price lows of last fall and higher than year-end prices, the recent price action is nothing to write home about. The price has been below most of the important moving averages, causing silver to be “oversold.” for decades the world’s largest stockpiles of silver were the COMEX warehouse inventories. These COMEX inventories were considered mostly commercial in nature with some portion being held for investment purposes.
Now, the combined inventories in the ETFs and other investment vehicles tower over the holdings in the COMEX by almost 4 to 1. (Over 400 million ounces in the ETFs compared to 120 million oz in COMEX inventories). Given the long-term nature of ETF investment holdings, this massive and historic shift in inventory composition means much less silver is now available to the market. This will exert a strong upward influence on price. Importantly, there has been practically no buying of silver on a leveraged or margin basis. It’s mostly been cash on the barrel. These strong silver buyers will wait for significantly higher prices before selling.Silver is dirt cheap relative to gold. While there is less above ground silver than gold, silver’s price has rarely been this low compared to gold.
 At precisely the same time that prices have declined so sharply,. The manipulation that explains why silver is so cheap cannot exist in a bona fide physical shortage. If the price stays low, growing numbers of investors buy real silver. That makes it harder for the manipulators to keep the price contained with paper derivatives.

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